Bulletins:August 2021

=22 August 2021=

Artwinger Courant
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At an impasse
Cabinet formation Michiel den Haever, Artwingen

There are some differences to overcome between possible coalition partners LVP and AP, according to UVD leader Hans van Leeuwen. The likely next prime minister of Lindenholt is trying to forge a parliamentary majority after the general elections that took place almost two months ago. The UVD's electoral victory came after a disappointing result for the previously ruling Liberal People's Party (LVP) and a mass exodus of GreenProgressives (GP) voters to the Labourers Party (AP).

While Van Leeuwen had stated his intention to form a cabinet with the GP, the numerical reality in the States General simply does not allow for such a two-party solution. The UVD's hope to continue the previous government (UVD, LVP and GP) under their leadership was also crushed the day after the elections, when the (previous) GP whip Daan de Ruijter's remark regarding his party's "unfortunate" result clearly indicated he was positioning himself for a place in the opposition. This attitude virtually ended the GP's negotiations to enter in to the first Van Leeuwen cabinet completely, and the GP stance was confirmed when its party members overwhelmingly voted in favour of entering the opposition. Incidentally, at the same congress where this vote was held, De Ruijter's fate was also sealed. He was ousted from his position in favour of 36 year old Diane Blancque, who reiterated her predecessor's words.

This means that for the UVD only two options remain. They can either convince the economically right wing LVP to cooperate with the economically left-wing AP, or they can bring themselves to enter a coalition with the conservative VOA together with the LVP.

Both options seem unfavourable to the Democrats. While cooperation between the UVD and AP was historically common, the AP has transitioned to be a very different party than what it was twelve years ago when the last formal UVD-AP alliance took place. The party's current leader, Marije van Aten, campaigned on hardline economically left-wing stances. A far cry from the days of former AP prime minister Hendrik Stevens, whose policies bordered neoliberalism. While the economically left-wing campaign promises of the AP will be difficult to unite with the LVP's liberal economic stance, the populist rhetoric used by Van Aten is problematic for the UVD, who have describe themselves as a counter to extremism on both sides of the political spectrum. Despite all this, none of the involved parties have openly excluded the AP from cooperation.

The option of a UVD-LVP-VOA government is also on the table. Where the AP seems to have chosen for a more radical course, the opposite can be said about the VOA. The more secular conservative factions within the party were already on the rise during the previous decade, and during the previous parliamentary term a centre to centre-left Christian democratic wing has also gained prominence. While VOA, LVP and the UVD will be able to reconcile their differences on the economic axis, the social policy of the UVD will mostly be form an obstacle. The party promised a lot of progressive social reforms, which may be shot down by entering with the still anti-euthanasia, anti-drugs and abortion hesitant VOA.

On Monday Van Leeuwen will speak to the leaders of both VOA and the AP, in all likelihood to discuss the obstacles that stand in the way of either party joining the next government.